Totals Are Options Contracts
Here's something most sports bettors never consider: an NFL game total is essentially an options contract. The total is the strike price, the juice is the premium, and the market's uncertainty about the final score is the implied volatility.
IV Rank for Game Totals
On the trading floor, we use IV Rank to determine if an option's implied volatility is historically high or low. We can do the same thing with NFL totals.
How to calculate IV Rank for a game: 1. Look at the last 10 games for both teams 2. Calculate the average combined score 3. Compare the current total to that average 4. If the total is significantly higher than the average, IV is "elevated" — consider the under 5. If the total is significantly lower, IV is "depressed" — consider the over
When the Market Overprices Totals
The public loves overs. It's more exciting to root for points. This creates a systematic bias that sharp bettors exploit:
- Primetime games: Totals are inflated 1-2 points because the public bets overs on nationally televised games
- Revenge games: When a team lost badly, the public expects a shootout in the rematch
- Weather games: The market often overcorrects for weather. Light rain barely affects scoring, but the total drops 3-4 points
My IV Trading Rules
- If IV Rank is above 80%, lean under
- If IV Rank is below 20%, lean over
- Never bet a total at -115 or worse — the juice eats your edge
- Live totals after a scoreless first quarter are gold
*— Pete Najarian*
